Message-ID: <8588355.1075856401512.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2001 05:30:00 -0800 (PST)
From: vince.kaminski@enron.com
To: shirley.crenshaw@enron.com
Subject: JAMES ELSNER'S VISIT: FEBRUARY 22
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Please, put on my calendar

Vince
---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 02/15/2001 
01:30 PM ---------------------------
From: Todd Kimberlain/ENRON@enronXgate on 02/15/2001 12:50 PM
To: Kyle Berryman/ENRON_DEVELOPMENT@ENRON_DEVELOPMENT, Bob 
Beyer/ENRON@enronXgate, Reno Casimir/ENRON@enronXgate, Huy 
Dinh/ENRON@enronXgate, Partho Ghosh/ENRON@enronXgate, "Gil, Eduardo" 
<Eduardo.Gil@ENRON.com>@SMTP@enronXgate, D Todd Hall/ENRON@enronXgate, Joseph 
Hrgovcic/ENRON@enronXgate, Michael Nguyen/ENRON@enronXgate, Timothy M 
Norton/ENRON@enronXgate, Sandeep Ramachandran/ENRON@enronXgate, Claudio 
Ribeiro/ENRON@enronXgate, Rajib Saha/ENRON@enronXgate, Valter 
Stoiani/ENRON@enronXgate, Mark Tawney/ENRON@enronXgate, Gary 
Taylor/ENRON@enronXgate, Yannis Tzamouranis/ENRON@enronXgate, Steven 
Vu/ENRON@enronXgate, Catherine Woolgar/ENRON@enronXgate, Stephen 
Bennett/NA/Enron@ENRON, Todd DeCook/Corp/Enron@Enron, Vince J 
Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT, Jose Marquez/Corp/Enron@ENRON, Andy 
Pace/NA/Enron@Enron, Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT@ECT, David Ryan/Corp/Enron@ENRON
cc:  
Subject: JAMES ELSNER'S VISIT:  FEBRUARY 22

Professor Jim Elsner from the Department of Meteorology/Geography at Florida 
State University will be visiting the Weather Risk Management group on 
Thursday, 22 February 2001.  Professor Elsner is a leading expert in 
hurricane climate studies. who is currently investigating 
interannual/decadal/multi-decadal hurricane variations and shifts/trends in 
hurricane landfall probabilities and their relationship to climate and 
climate change; he also issues seasonal predictions for number of hurricanes 
and landfall probabilities along segments of the U.S. coastline.  Moreover, 
he is a leading authority in non-linear dynamics and chaos theory and has 
published a number of papers on these topics.  

His talk will focus on a proposed research topic, which will provide Enron 
with climatological instruments for use in the insurance and long-term 
derivative markets.  The research involves a
Bayesian analysis of the longest available record of hurricane activity along 
the U.S. coastline.  Deliverables will address the hurricane threat in the 
United States, but the methodology can be applied elsewhere.  The techniques 
also can be applied to climate extremes including precipitation and
temperature.

The talk is scheduled for 9 a.m. and the room assignment will be announced.

All are cordially invited to attend.

Best regards,
Todd Kimberlain


